No. 249 MOSES: Model of Swedish Economic Studies

by Gunnar Bårdsen, Ard den Reijer, Patrik Jonasson and Ragnar Nymoen

JANUARY 2011

Abstract

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for short-term forecasting and policy simulations. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and examples of dynamic simulation (model forecasts) for the period 2009q2-2012q4 are presented. We address practical issues relating to operational use and maintenance of a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in an appendix.