Economic commentary: Analysis of revisions in short-term wage statistics

Date 05/10/2010

The Riksbank regularly produces forecasts of the development of wages in the Swedish economy. The wage statistics used as a basis for the Riksbank’s various wage forecasts are the monthly shortterm wage statistics. This commentary analyses the revisions of wage outcomes that are made on an ongoing basis in these statistics over a periods of 12 months. The revisions follow a systematic pattern. One can therefore use the revisions and the initial preliminary wage outcomes to forecast future definitive wage outcomes. The commentary also presents a method for doing this. The method provides highly-accurate estimates of definitive wage outcomes, which is important to the Riksbank’s forecasts of future wage developments.