The Riksbank's risk survey spring 2009

Date 27/05/2009

A relatively large share of the participants in the Swedish fixed income and foreign exchange markets still state that their risk propensity has declined over the past six months. However, this share is smaller than in October 2008. Compared with six months ago, a larger share of market participants now state that their risk propensity has increased. At the same time, almost half of the market participants consider that the financial crisis has peaked. This is revealed in the Riksbank's risk survey which is published today.

 

The situation in the financial markets remains uncertain

A relatively large share of the participants in the Swedish fixed income and foreign exchange markets still state that their risk propensity has declined over the past six months. However, this share is smaller than in the survey held in October 2008. Compared with six months ago, a majority of market participants now state that their risk propensity has been unchanged or even increased slightly over the past six months. The survey respondents also state that both the Swedish fixed income market and the foreign exchange market have functioned poorly over the past six months. But in an international comparison the Swedish markets have functioned relatively well.

Almost half of the respondents to the risk survey consider that the financial crisis has now peaked, although there is still considerable uncertainty. Approximately one third state that they do not believe that the crisis has peaked. It is expected that there will still be increased risk awareness and a higher price for risk even when the crisis is over. Developments in the Baltic countries are considered to be the most important factor for developments in the financial markets in Sweden, particularly in the short term. For developments in the longer term, the participants regard economic activity in Sweden and globally as important factors.

 

The design of the Riksbank’s risk survey

Since spring 2008 the Riksbank has carried out its own twice-yearly survey of participants in the Swedish fixed-income and foreign exchange markets. The questions in the survey refer to the participants’ views on risk and to their opinions regarding the functioning of the markets. The results of earlier risk surveys have been published on the same date as the Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report. With effect from the current survey, the results of the surveys will be published one week prior to the publication of the Financial Stability Report.

The Riksbank’s risk survey for spring 2009 can be downloaded as a PDF file from the Riksbank’s website, www.riksbank.com, under the heading Press & Published/Reports.