No. 193. A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro

by Hans Lindblad and Peter Sellin
May 2006

Abstract

In this paper we simultaneously estimate the real exchange rates between the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro. A prime candidate for explaining the exchange rate movements is relative potential output. Since this variable is unobservable, cyclical and potential output are estimated in an unobserved components framework together with a Phillips curve. Our empirical exchange rate results are in line with theory. Increases in relative potential output and the terms of trade strengthen the exchange rate, while a relative increase of the fraction of middle-aged people in the population and budget deficits depreciate the exchange rate. The estimates suggest that the recent deterioration of the relative budget situation for the US versus Europe is a prime candidate for explaining the USD/EUR exchange rate change lately.

Keywords

Equilibrium real exchange rate, expectations augmented Phillips curve, unobserved-components model.

JEL classification

C32, E31, F31, F41.