Riksbank cuts repo rate to −0.10 per cent, buys government bonds for SEK 10 billion and is prepared to do more at short notice
Date
12/02/2015
There are signs that underlying inflation has bottomed out, but the situation abroad is now more uncertain and this increases the risk that inflation will not rise sufficiently fast. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.10 percentage points, to -0.10 per cent, and to adjust the repo-rate path down somewhat. At the same time, the interest rates on the fine-tuning transactions in the Riksbank's operational framework for the implementation of monetary policy are being restored to the repo rate +/- 0.10 percentage point. Moreover, the Riksbank will buy government bonds for the sum of SEK 10 billion. These measures and the readiness to do more at short notice underline that the Riksbank' is safeguarding the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation.
Uncertainty abroad has increased
The recovery in the world as a whole is expected to continue in the years immediately ahead, although at a slow rate. However, the risks of a poorer outcome abroad have increased since December. Oil prices have fallen, which is positive for global growth but it also leads to low global inflation. Economic activity also differs from region to region. This is reflected in increased differences in monetary policy between, for example, the United States and the euro area, and in significant fluctuations on the foreign-exchange markets. Recent developments in Greece also contribute to the uncertainty.
Economic activity in Sweden strengthening but inflation is too low
Although the recovery abroad is slow, growth in Sweden will benefit from the low oil prices, the weaker krona and the very low repo rate. GDP growth is expected to increase at a faster pace in the coming period and the labour market is expected to strengthen.
Inflation is still low, but there are now signs that underlying inflation, for instance, the CPIF excluding energy, has bottomed out and is rising. The krona is weaker than anticipated, which will also contribute to somewhat higher inflation. However, low energy prices are expected to hold down CPIF inflation in the year immediately ahead.
More expansionary monetary policy so inflation will rise towards the target
The recent development of inflation has been roughly as expected, but there is a risk that low oil prices will dampen inflation expectations, and thus inflation, more than is assumed in the forecast. To this can be added the increased uncertainty about developments abroad and on the financial markets.
Readiness to do more
The measures the Riksbank is now taking underline that the Riksbank is safeguarding the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation. To ensure that inflation rises towards the target, the Riksbank is prepared to quickly make monetary policy more expansionary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings, should the need arise. This will primarily entail making further repo-rate cuts, postponing the first repo-rate increase and increasing the purchases of government bonds. In addition, there is the possibility of a programme of loans to companies via the banks.
Forecasts for Swedish inflation, GDP, unemployment and the repo rate*
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CPI
0.0
-0.2 (-0.2)
0.1 (0.3)
1.9 (2.0)
3.3 (3.2)
CPIF
0.9
0.5 (0.5)
0.9 (1.0)
2.0 (2.0)
2.2 (2.1)
GDP
1.3
1.8 (1.8)
2.7 (2.6)
3.3 (3.3)
2.2 (2.3)
Unemployment,
8.0
7.9 (7.9)
7.6 (7.5)
7.1 (6.9)
6.7 (6.6)
Repo rate, per cent
1.0
0.5 (0.5)
-0.1 (0.0)
0.0 (0.2)
0.9 (1.1)
*Annual percentage change, annual average
Note. The assessment in the December 2014 Monetary Policy Update is shown in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Forecast for the repo rate*
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1
Repo rate
0.08
-0.05 (0.00)
-0.11 (0.00)
-0.12 (0.00)
0.57 (0.74)
1.43
*Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. The assessment in the December 2014 Monetary Policy Update is shown in brackets.
Source: The Riksbank
Deputy Governor Martin Flodén supported the direction for monetary policy, that it needs to become more expansionary, but entered a reservation against the decision to buy government bonds now.
The decision on the repo rate and the interest rates for the fine-tuning transactions will apply with effect from 18 February. The minutes from the Executive Board's monetary policy discussion will be published on 25 February. Further information on the Riksbank's purchases of government bonds and interest rates in the operational framework for implementing monetary policy can be found in separate documents on the Riksbank's website, www.riksbank.se.
