Economic Commentary: Recent inflation outcomes and forecasts

Date 07/05/2015

Inflation has been particularly difficult to predict in recent years and the Riksbank as well as other analysts have overestimated it on several occasions. This is indicated by a study published today as an Economic Commentary.

The Riksbank's forecasts for inflation in the short term have been roughly as accurate as those of other analysts, despite the Riksbank having less information at its disposal in several cases. A review of the statistics shows that there has been a broad decline in the rate of inflation in recent years. Several outcomes have also been extreme, when regarded in an historical perspective.

By Mårten Löf
The author works in the Monetary Policy Department of the Riksbank.