Economic Commentary: The Riksbank’s forecasts hold up well
Date
23/05/2013
The Riksbank’s CPI forecasts have been rated among the poorest in assessments covering a longer period of time and this has caused people to question the Riksbank’s forecasting ability. This Economic Commentary ranks the forecasters during the entire period 2007-2012 and also during each individual year.
The analysis shows that the Riksbank's forecasts for unemployment, GDP and the CPIF hold up well. The CPI forecasts have also been good, with the exception of one individual year. The large forecast errors for 2009 bring down the Riksbank's rating in the assessment of the period as a whole. It is thus wrong to say that the Riksbank's inflation forecasts are poor. Rather, the results of this analysis suggest that the Riksbank's forecasting ability is good.
