Economic Commentary: A fairer picture of the Riksbank's inflation forecasts

Date 14/10/2013

The National Institute of Economic Research has assessed the inflation forecasts made by the Riksbank since 2001. They claim that the Riksbank has systematically overestimated inflation and draw far-reaching conclusions from this. We show in this Economic Commentary that the National Institute of Economic Research's analysis has a number of flaws. The "systematic bias" the Institute claims to have found in the Riksbank's forecasts of underlying inflation moreover does not prove to be systematic, but only arises during two periods of economic turbulence – periods when all of the major Swedish analysts overestimated inflation.

 

Economic Commentary: A fairer picture of the Riksbank's inflation forecasts (pdf)